Preprint Feed – Epidemiology

medrxiv Subject Collection: Epidemiology This feed contains articles for medRxiv Subject Collection "Epidemiology"

• Demography and outcomes of frozen tongue: a scoping review of Scandinavian tundra tongue cases

  by Jarmund, A. H., Tollefsen, S. E., Sakshaug, B. C., Honarmandi, Y., Torp, S. H. on May 8, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Children occasionally adhere their tongues to cold metal surfaces during winter ("tundra tongue"), but little is known about the epidemiology and outcomes of these cases. We therefore conducted a scoping review to explore the following questions: who experience tundra tongue, under which circumstances does it occur, and what are the outcomes? Systematic searches were performed to identify case reports published in historical newspapers from Norway, Sweden and Denmark using national […]

• Intensity of public health and social measures are associated with effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative study

  by Tsang, T., Sullivan, S., Huang, X. J., Wang, C., Peng, L., Yang, B., Cowling, B. J. on May 8, 2025 at 12:00 am

  The intensity and duration of exposure can influence vaccine effectiveness (VE). For "leaky" vaccines such as SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, which reduce but do not entirely prevent infections, repeated or prolonged exposures may increase breakthrough infection likelihood. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 76 test-negative design studies reporting VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe disease. Exposure intensity was approximated using Oxford […]

• Epydemix: An open-source Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration

  by Gozzi, N., Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Gioannini, C., Rossi, L., Ajelli, M., Perra, N., Vespignani, A. on May 8, 2025 at 12:00 am

  We present Epydemix, an open-source Python package for the development and calibration of stochastic compartmental epidemic models. The framework supports flexible model structures that incorporate demographic information, age-stratified contact matrices, and dynamic public health interventions. A key feature of Epydemix is its integration of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) techniques to perform parameter inference and model calibration through comparison between observed and simulated […]

• Human Plasma Proteomics Links Modifiable Lifestyle Exposome to Disease Risk

  by Isaac, S. K., Ellis, R. J., Gusev, A., Murthy, V. L., Udler, M. S., Patel, C. J. on May 8, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Environmental exposures influence disease risk, yet their underlying biological mechanisms remain poorly understood. We present the Human Exposomic Architecture of the Proteome (HEAP), a framework and resource integrating genetic, exposomic, and proteomic data to uncover how lifestyle influences disease through plasma proteins. Applying HEAP to 2,686 proteins in 53,014 UK Biobank participants, we identified over 11,000 exposure-protein associations across 135 lifestyle exposures. Exposures […]

• Social determinants of health and epigenetic clocks: Meta-analysis of 140 studies

  by Willems, Y. E., Rezaki, A. D., Aikins, M. A., Bahl, A., Wu, Q., Belsky, D., Raffington, L. on May 8, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Social determinants of health are social factors that affect health and survival. Two of the most powerful social determinants are socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ethnicity; people with lower SES or marginalized race/ethnicity tend to experience earlier onset of aging-related diseases and have shorter lifespans. DNA methylation (DNAm) measures of biological aging, often referred to as epigenetic clocks, are increasingly used to study the social determination of health. However, there are […]

• Exploring the effect of maternal glycemic traits on offspring cardiometabolic risk factors in adulthood: an intergenerational Mendelian randomization study

  by Bhatta, L., Bond, T. A., Warrington, N. M., Wang, G., Denos, M., Evans, D., Lawlor, D. A., Asvold, B. O., Moen, G.-H., Brumpton, B. M. on May 8, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Introduction Maternal higher circulating glucose levels in pregnancy have been proposed to influence the offsprings cardiometabolic health in adulthood through developmental mechanisms. Previous observational studies may have been subject to confounding, including by the inheritance of maternal alleles that predispose to hyperglycemia in the offspring. Objectives We aimed to test the causal effect of maternal glycemic traits on offspring cardiometabolic risk factors in adulthood. Methods […]

• Parental body mass index and offspring cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood: an intergenerational Mendelian randomization study

  by Bond, T. A., Bhatta, L., Yang, Q., Moen, G.-H., Wang, G., Beaumont, R. N., Morris, T. T., Hwang, L.-D. N., Wootton, R. E., Corfield, E. C., Warrington, N. M., Magnus, M. C., Havdahl, A., Borges, M. C., Lawlor, D. A., Brumpton, B. M., Evans, D. M., Asvold, B. O. on May 7, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Importance Observationally, greater pre-pregnancy maternal and paternal body mass index (BMI) are associated with a poorer offspring adult cardiovascular risk factor profile, but it is unclear whether this is due to family-level confounding or causal developmental mechanisms. Objective We aimed to test the causal effect of maternal and paternal BMI on offspring cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood, accounting for the genetic correlation between parents and offspring. Design Two-sample […]

• Long-term negative divergence (1990-2019) between the United Kingdom and 21 peer countries in mortality at ages 25-49 years

  by Leon, D. A., Danov, D., Medina-Jaudes, N., Danilova, I., Shkolnikov, V. M. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundThe poor performance of the UK in reducing mortality compared to many other high-income countries following the 2008 financial crisis have been extensively studied, with particular attention to deaths of despair at working ages. However, longer-term trends in the differences in working-age mortality between the UK and peer countries have not been systematically investigated. MethodsWe compared trends (1990-2019) in age-standardised mortality rates at age 25-49 years in the UK and its […]

• Developing and deploying a use-inspired metapopulation modeling framework for detailed tracking of stratified health outcomes

  by fadikar, a., Stevens, A., rimer, S., martinez-moyano, i., COLLIER, N., Ozik, J., macal, c. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Public health experts studying infectious disease spread often seek granular insights into population health outcomes. Metapopulation models offer an effective framework for analyzing disease transmission through subpopulation mixing. These models strike a balance between traditional, homogeneous mixing compartmental models and granular but computationally intensive agent-based models. In collaboration with the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH), we developed MetaRVM, an open-source R […]

• Number of Austrian SARS-CoV-2 infections in the 2024/2025 season: Analysis of national wastewater data

  by Riedmann, U., Rauch, W., Schenk, H., Oberacher, H., Ioannidis, J., Pilz, S. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 policies requires information of contemporary infection trends. Based on wastewater data, we estimate 2.5 million new infections in Austria between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025, with peak in early October. This indicates the earliest annual fall/winter peak and the lowest annual infections since 2020.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COMPUTATIONAL METHODS FOR MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLUENZA AND INFLUENZA-LIKE ILLNESS: A SCOPING REVIEW

  by Onifade, I., Adeoye, A., Bayode, M., Michael, I., Akangbe, B., Akomolafe, O., Ajisafe, T., Hossain, D., Owoeye, O. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundThe persistnt resurgence of influence and influenza-like illness despite concerted vaccination interventions is a global health burden, thus necessitating accurate tools for early intervention and preparedness. This scoping review aims to map the currently available literature on artificial intelligence (AI)-based forecasting models for seasonal influenza and to identify trends in those published models, approaches, and research gaps. MethodsA detailed search was conducted in PubMed, […]

• Fast and Trustworthy Nowcasting of Dengue Fever: A Case Study Using Attention-Based Probabilistic Neural Networks in Sao Paulo, Brazil

  by Koemen, S., Faria, N. R., Bastos, L. S., Ratmann, O., Amaral, A. V. R. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Nowcasting methods are crucial in infectious disease surveillance, as reporting delays often lead to underestimation of recent incidence and can impair timely public health decision-making. Accurate real-time estimates of case counts are essential for resource allocation, policy responses, and communication with the public. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic neural network (PNN) architecture, named NowcastPNN, to estimate occurred-but-not-yet-reported cases of infectious diseases, […]

• Systematic identification of rare disease patients in electronic health records enables evaluation of clinical outcomes

  by Yadaw, A. S., Sid, E., Sidky, H., Zeng, C., Zhu, Q., Mathe, E. A. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundIdentifying rare disease (RD) patients in electronic health records (EHR) is challenging, as more than 10,000 rare diseases are not typically captured by clinical coding systems. This limits the assessment of clinical outcomes for RD patients. This study introduces a semiautomated approach to map RDs to appropriate codes, that is applicable across various EHR systems. By improving RD patient identification, this method facilitates the analysis of clinical outcomes and disease severity […]

• Exposome-wide associations and polyexposure risks of workplace chemical exposures on adult asthma: The Personalized Environment and Genes Study (PEGS)

  by Chen, Y., Akhtari, F. S., He, Y., Yu, L., Nguyen, V. K., Tsui, M. T.-K., Mizuno, Y., Funk, W. E., Chan, C. Y., Tse, S. L., Ho, K. F., Patel, C. J., Motsinger-Reif, A., Chung, M. K. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundMany potential occupational asthmagens and their co-exposure risks are underestimated. We conducted an exposome-wide association study (ExWAS) to systematically explore occupational chemical exposures and estimate their joint association with adult asthma and related multimorbidity. MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 3148 adults in the Personalized Environment and Genes Study (PEGS), a North Carolina-based cohort with questionnaire-based health and exposure data. Standardized […]

• Opioid prescribing to people on orthopaedic waiting lists during the COVID-19 pandemic in England: a study using OpenSAFELY-TPP

  by Higgins, R., Smith, R. M., Dillingham, I., Quinlan, J., Speed, V., Curtis, H. J., Wood, C., Wiedemann, M., Jani, M., Bacon, S. C., Mehrkar, A., Goldacre, B., The OpenSAFELY Collaborative,, MacKenna, B., Schaffer, A. L. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundWaiting times for elective procedures increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. People waiting for orthopaedic procedures often require opioids to manage pain, and longer waiting times may result in a need for more and stronger opioids to treat symptoms. MethodsWith NHS England approval, we used routine clinical data from general practice adult patients in OpenSAFELY-TPP linked with the National Minimum Waiting List Dataset. We identified people on elective waiting lists […]

• Prevalence of malaria and associated factors among febrile under five children in Bora district, East Shoa zone, Oromia, Ethiopia, 2024: Institutional based cross sectional study

  by Alemu, T. N., Endries, A. Y., Demie, T. G., Hailemariam, D. B. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  IntroductionMalaria remains a major public health importance disease, especially, among under five children in Ethiopia, who were vulnerable group due to not well developed immunity. Although studies in regard to the burden of malaria among under-five children were available elsewhere, study in the low malaria transmission areas were scarcely available. ObjectiveTo determine the prevalence of malaria and identify associated factors among febrile under-five children in Bora district, East Shoa […]

• Regression-based modeling of pairwise genomic linkage data identifies risk factors for healthcare-associated infection transmission: Application to carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae transmission in a long-term care facility

  by Steinberg, H., Adediran, T., Hayden, M. K., Snitkin, E., Zelner, J. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundPathogen whole genome sequencing (WGS) has significant potential for improving healthcare-associated infection (HAI) outcomes. However, methods for integrating WGS with epidemiologic data to quantify risks for pathogen spread remain underdeveloped. MethodsTo identify analytic strategies for conducting WGS-based HAI surveillance in high-burden settings, we modeled patient- and facility-level transmission risks of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) in a long-term acute […]

• Child Developmental Patterns across Subtypes of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: TMM BirThree Cohort Study

  by Chen, G., Ishikuro, M., Ohseto, H., Noda, A., Shinoda, G., Orui, M., Obara, T., Kuriyama, S. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundExposure to hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and subtypes during the fetal stage has been linked to developmental delays in children. Longitudinal patterns in child development may reveal etiological and pathophysiological mechanisms; however, the associations between HDP subtypes and these patterns remain unclear. ObjectiveTo investigate the association between HDP subtypes and child developmental patterns. Study designThis study included 14,044 mother-child pairs from the […]

• Parametric Survival Analysis of Long COVID Among Hospitalized Patients in Zambia: A Retrospective Cohort Study on the Time to Symptoms Resolving

  by Malambo, W., Sampa-Kawana, M., Chanda, D., Folowshi, S., Hines, J. Z., Kaonga, P. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundLong COVID refers to the continuation or development of new symptoms within three months after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, with these symptoms lasting for at least 2 months. Despite studies on COVID-19 sequelae, gaps remain in understanding the temporal dynamics of COVID-19 symptom resolving. This knowledge is crucial for treatment planning and setting realistic recovery expectations. Using a cohort of patients hospitalized in Zambia for COVID-19, the objective of this study was to […]

• Multimorbidity Profiles and Severe In-Hospital Outcomes in Adults with Respiratory Syncytial Virus

  by Ma, K. C., Surie, D., Zhu, Y., Grijalva, C. G., Blair, P. W., Safdar, B., Ginde, A. A., Peltan, I. D., Brown, S. M., Gaglani, M., Ghamande, S., Columbus, C., Mohr, N. M., Gibbs, K. W., Hager, D. N., Prekker, M. E., Gong, M. N., Mohamed, A., Johnson, N. J., Steingrub, J. S., Khan, A., Hough, C. L., Duggal, A., Gordon, A. J., Qadir, N., Chang, S. Y., Mallow, C., Busse, L. W., Kwon, J. H., Exline, M. C., Vaughn, I. A., Ramesh, M., Lauring, A. S., Martin, E. T., Leis, A. M., Mosier, J. M., Harris, E. S., Baughman, A., Johnson, C., Casey, J. D., Halasa, N., Chappell, J. D., Lewis, N., Ellington, S. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Importance: Adults hospitalized with acute respiratory infections, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), often have multiple underlying conditions. Few data are available on the combined effect of concurrent underlying conditions on risk of severe outcomes from RSV disease among inpatients. Objective: To identify underlying condition profiles associated with increased risk of severe outcomes among adults hospitalized with RSV. Design: We applied Bayesian profile regression, an […]

• Identification of common pre-analytical errors during the HIV viral load and EID testing in Cameroon: A call for strengthening the laboratory systems to support follow-up people living with HIV/AIDS.

  by AMOUGOU-ATSAMA, M., Atsinkou, S. N., Bouba, Y., Hamadou, A., Malabo-Ngo, T. E., Fainguem, N. N., Nwobegahay, J., Vuchas, C., Elise, E., Bille, B. E., Nguiala, D. D., Biongolo, E., Lamare, B. N., Liman, Y., Tongo, M., Mpabuka, E., Ayouba, A., Kouanfack, C., Meka, A. F. Z., Fokam, J. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundHIV Viral Load (HIV-VL) and Early Infant Diagnosis (EID) play a pivotal role in the laboratory surveillance, monitoring of HIV/AIDS, and its elimination as a public concern. However, sample rejection resulting from sample non-conformity (SNC) due to inadequate collection, transportation, and management of samples, especially during the pre-analytic phase, negatively affects laboratory performance. This study aimed to characterize errors observed during the pre-analytical phase of […]

• Investigating the relationship between serum vitamin D levels over time and the incidence of atrial fibrillation in The HUNT Study

  by Jiang, L., Sun, Y.-Q., Malmo, V., Mai, X.-M. on May 6, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Background and AimsEvidence of the association between serum vitamin D levels and atrial fibrillation (AF) is inconclusive. Thus, this study investigated the relationship between long-term average serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and AF incidence in the Norwegian Trondelag Health (HUNT) Study using a prospective cohort design and a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. MethodsA total of 3394 adults with two measurements of serum 25(OH)D at HUNT2 (1995-1997) and HUNT3 (2006-2008) and […]

• Socio-demographic differences in the risk of suicides in children and young people: a population level linked study in England, 2011 to 2022

  by Sharland, E., Mullis, R., John, E., Ward, I., Rodway, C., Ayoubkhani, D., Nafilyan, V. on May 5, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundSuicide is one of the leading causes of death in children and young people (CYP) globally. Over the past decade there has been a steady increase in the number of suicide deaths in CYP in the UK. This study aims to identify socio-demographic differences in the risk of suicide in CYP. MethodsUsing linked 2011 Census and death registrations data, we created a cohort of 7,747,345 CYP aged 10 to 17 years in England. We estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using generalised […]

• Durability of the BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted vaccine against JN.1 hospitalisation in Europe, October 2023 to August 2024: A test-negative case-control study using the id.DRIVE platform

  by Volkman, H. R., de Munter, L., Nguyen, J. L., Tran, T. M. P., Mitratza, M., Marques, C., Choi, L., Valluri, S., Yang, J., Anton, A., Casas, I., Conde-Sousa, E., Drikite, L., Gruner, B., Icardi, G., Luit ten Kate, G., Martin, C., Mira-Iglesias, A., Orrico-Sanchez, A., Otero-Romero, S., Rohde, G., Jodar, L., McLaughlin, J. M., Bollaerts, K. on May 5, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundWhile multiple studies have shown that the BNT162b2 XBB.1.5-adapted mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2 XBB vaccine) is effective in preventing COVID-19 hospitalisation and death, effectiveness beyond six months remains unexplored. AimWe extended our previous study of BNT162b2 XBB vaccine effectiveness (VE) to evaluate durability against JN.1-related hospitalisation up to 46 weeks since dose using the id.DRIVE platform across Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Spain. MethodsThis […]

• PySIRTEM: An Efficient Modular Simulation Platform for The Analysis of Pandemic Scenarios

  by Biswas, P., Pedrielli, G., Candan, K. S. on May 5, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Conventional population-based ODE models struggle against increased level of resolution since incorporating many states exponentially increases computational costs, and demands robust calibration for numerous hyperparameters. PySIRTEM is a spatiotemporal SEIR-based epidemic simulation platform that provides high resolution analysis of viral disease progression and mitigation. Based on the authors-developed Matlab(C) simulator SIRTEM, PySIRTEM s modular design reflects key health processes, […]

• Association between Socioeconomic Status and Cardiovascular Disease by sex: Mediating roles of health behavior, depression, and unmet medical needs

  by Choi, J., Cho, S.-i. on May 3, 2025 at 12:00 am

  IntroductionCardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death, and numerous studies have examined its risk factors. Low socioeconomic status (SES) increases the risk of CVD and contributes to disparities in health outcomes through the unequal distribution of intermediary factors. Although health behaviors, psychosocial factors, and access to healthcare are unequally distributed across socioeconomic groups, the mechanisms remain unclear. Therefore, this study aims to identify the pathways […]

• Climate change, national vulnerability and personal anxiety among teenagers and adults in 108 countries: an instrumental variable analysis

  by Tampubolon, G. on May 3, 2025 at 12:00 am

  The latest Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2022) stated for the first time "with high confidence [that] climate change is human made." However, this scientific fact has not elicited widespread belief even among democratic representatives, let alone its mental health impact being universally recognised. Using the latest survey in 2020 of extreme anxiety among 113,460 teenagers and adults in 108 countries which constitute 89% of the world […]

• Association of reproductive and gender-related characteristics with cardiovascular risk factors of women in India: an analysis of nationally representative data

  by Subramanya, V., Suglia, S., Narayan, K. M. V., Yadav, S., Richardson, R., Alonso, A., Patel, S. A. on May 3, 2025 at 12:00 am

  IntroductionWomen have unique characteristics based on their biological sex and gender that could contribute to their cardiovascular risk. This paper investigates the association between reproductive and gender-related characteristics on cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) among women in India. MethodsThis cross-sectional analysis included 54,200 women aged 18-49 years from the National Family Health Survey-5, restricted to participants interviewed for the state or domestic violence module. […]

• Pharmacoepidemiology simulation study practices: A methodological review

  by Muddiman, R., Aiello Battan, F. I., Tazare, J., Schultze, A., Boland, F., Perez, T., Wei, L., Walsh, M. E., Moriarty, F. on May 2, 2025 at 12:00 am

  PurposeSimulation studies are used in pharmacoepidemiology for evaluating inferential methods in a controlled setting, whereby a known data-generating mechanism allows evaluation of the performance of different approaches and assumptions. This study aimed to review simulation studies performed in pharmacoepidemiology. MethodsWe conducted a review of all papers published in the journal of Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety (PDS) over the period 2017 to 2024. We extracted data on study […]

• Estimating probabilities of malaria importation in southern Mozambique through P. falciparum genomics and mobility patterns

  by Pujol, A., Chidimatembue, A., da Silva, C., Boene, S., Mbeve, H., Cistero, P., Garcia-Fernandez, C., Vano-Boira, A., Tembisse, D., Inacio, J., Matambisso, G., Luis, F., Ndimande, N., Munguambe, H., Nhamussua, L., Simone, W., Aranda-Diaz, A., Garcia-Ulloa, M., Canana, N., Tusell, M., Montana, J., Fuente-Soro, L., Bapu, K. U., Murphy, M., Rafael, B., Rovira-Vallbona, E., Guinovart, C., Greenhouse, B., Enosse, S. M., Saute, F., Aide, P., Candrinho, B., Mayor, A. on May 2, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Imported malaria is a critical obstacle to achieving elimination in low transmission settings. Characterising malaria importation and transmission sources using human mobility and parasite genomics has the potential to inform elimination strategies, but tools combining both types of data are lacking. We developed a novel Bayesian approach that provides individual importation probabilities and geographic origin of P. falciparum cases by combining epidemiological, human mobility and parasite […]