Preprint Feed – Epidemiology

medrxiv Subject Collection: Epidemiology This feed contains articles for medRxiv Subject Collection "Epidemiology"

• Transcriptome-wide Mendelian randomisation exploring dynamic CD4+ T cell gene expression in colorectal cancer development

  by Deslandes, B., Wu, X., Lee, M. A., Goudswaard, L. J., Jones, G. W., Gsur, A., Lindblom, A., Ogino, S., Vymetalkova, V., Wolk, A., Wu, A. H., Huyghe, J. R., Peters, U., Phipps, A. I., Thomas, C. E., Pai, R. K., Grant, R. C., Buchanan, D. D., Yarmolinksy, J., Gunter, M. J., Zheng, J., Hazelwood, E., Vincent, E. E. on April 17, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Background Recent research has identified a potential protective effect of higher numbers of circulating lymphocytes on colorectal cancer (CRC) development. However, the importance of different lymphocyte subtypes and activation states in CRC development and the biological pathways driving this relationship remain poorly understood and warrant further investigation. Specifically, CD4+ T cells — a highly dynamic lymphocyte subtype — undergo remodelling upon activation to induce the expression […]

• Longitudinal Study on Changes in COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions in Benin and Senegal: Insights from Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE)

  by GAYE, I., Faye, A., Ridde, V., Martin, A. E. on April 17, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic led to strict measures and the rapid deployment of vaccines, which were adopted in Benin and Senegal. This longitudinal study employs Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to analyze the evolution of vaccination intent and its determinants. By examining attitudes, risk perceptions, and social influence, it provides insights into adherence dynamics and helps guide vaccination strategies in West Africa. Methods This is a longitudinal, descriptive, and […]

• Impact of amoxicillin shortage on pneumococcal resistance and IPD in children: evaluation of different management strategies in European countries

  by Maurin, A., Delory, T., Le Bel, J., Guillemot, D., Sofonea, M. T., Temime, L., Opatowski, L. on April 17, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Antibiotic shortages are increasing worldwide, with potential major consequences for both individual health and bacterial ecology. Here, we assess the impact of beta-lactam shortage management on pneumococcal resistance and the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). We developed a mechanistic model of S. pneumoniae paediatric colonisation and transmission, accounting for beta-lactam and macrolide exposure. We explored the effects of four antibiotic allocation strategies following a […]

• Long-lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on incidence and mortality of patients hospitalized for acute heart failure: a nationwide cohort study of the entire French population from 2013 to 2023

  by Moulaire, P., Delory, T., Oghina, S., Damy, T., Espagnacq, M., Khlat, M., Le Coeur, S., Hejblum, G., Lapidus, N. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Background and aimsHealthcare pathways were reorganized in 2020 to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite their urgent status, hospital admissions for acute heart failure (AHF) were reported to decline from 9% to 66% worldwide between 2020 and 2021, with divergent findings on in-hospital mortality. This study aims to describe and interpret the evolution of AHF hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality in France from 2020 to 2023. MethodsBased on the 2.7 million AHF hospitalizations recorded in […]

• The age-specific concentrations and seroprevalence of antibodies against Salmonella Enteritidis (O:9) and Salmonella Typhimurium (O:4,5) across three sites in Kenya

  by Muthumbi, E. M., Elias, S. C., Mwanzu, A., Mutiso, A., Wanjiku, P., Mbae, C., Bigogo, G., Verani, J. R., Flasche, S., Kariuki, S., MacLennan, C. A., Scott, J. A. G. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Background: Seroprevalence studies can indicate the age-distribution of first infection with non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) and estimate the rate of infection by age. This can help target interventions, particularly vaccination. Method: We collected 1254 paired samples of serum and stool from healthy children and adults (aged 0-82 years) in Kilifi, Nairobi, and Siaya counties in Kenya, areas of low, medium and high incidence of invasive NTS disease (iNTS), respectively. We quantified the age […]

• Retrospective evaluation of school-related measures on pre-vaccination transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

  by Canfora, B., Escosio, R. A., van Dorp, C. H., Boldea, O., Bonten, M., Nunes, A., Rozhnova, G. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Schools are important settings for respiratory virus transmission and a major focus of pandemic control measures in the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions. During the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions regarding school closures and openings were highly debated due to uncertainties about their population-level impact. Using an age-stratified transmission model formally fitted to hospitalization and seroprevalence data in a Bayesian framework, we retrospectively assessed the effect of […]

• COVID-19 and Influenza vaccine co-administration, and missed opportunities to increase COVID-19 vaccination coverage among U.S. adults, 2023-2024

  by Qasmieh, S. A., Penrose, K., Robertson, M. M., Piltch-Loeb, R., Rane, M. S., Nash, D. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  COVID-19 and influenza vaccines are key in protecting against severe clinical outcomes, yet updated COVID-19 vaccination coverage has declined over time and remains much lower than for influenza. Our study aimed to understand the uptake of both COVID-19 and influenza vaccines (including co-administration) and missed opportunities for COVID-19 vaccination during the 2023-2024 respiratory virus season. We surveyed a representative sample of 4022 non-institutionalized U.S. adults and examined […]

• Modeling the impact of case finding for tuberculosis: The role of infection dynamics

  by Ryckman, T. S., Shrestha, S., Fojo, A. T., Kasaie, P., Dowdy, D. W., Kendall, E. A. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Population-level case-finding is globally recommended as a strategy to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in high-burden settings, but mathematical models overwhelmingly project that case-finding will yield only modest reductions in incidence. We evaluated whether the common assumption of lifelong risk of progression after infection leads models to undervalue the impact of case-finding. Specifically, clearance of latent infection reduces the rate of long-term "reactivation", which […]

• Differential DNA methylation in blood as potential mediator of the association between ambient PM2.5 and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease among a cognitively normal population-based cohort

  by Ma, T., Liu, J., Liang, D., Ebelt, S., Steenland, K., I. Levey, A., J. Lah, J., P. Wingo, A., S. Wingo, T., Huels, A. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  IntroductionFine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a known risk factor for Alzheimers disease (AD), with emerging evidence linking PM2.5 exposure to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers in pre-clinical stages. However, the role of DNA methylation (DNAm) as potential mediator in this relationship among cognitively normal individuals remains largely unexplored. MethodsIn 535 cognitively normal individuals, we assessed genome-wide blood DNAm, CSF A{beta}42 concentrations, and residential PM2.5 […]

• A framework for classifying disease trends applied to influenza-associated hospital admissions in the United States

  by Mathis, S. M., Biggerstaff, M., Budd, A., O’Halloran, A., Bozio, C., Borchering, R. K. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  We built a framework for categorizing week-to-week increases or decreases in seasonal influenza hospitalizations aiding data interpretation in the context of past seasons. Using Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) data, we established thresholds for weekly hospitalization rate differences and applied them to the 2022/23 and 2023/24 influenza seasons from the National Healthcare Safety Network. While the number of weeks categorized as stable was consistent across […]

• Impact of Discrimination in Healthcare on Patterns of Doctor Visits Over Time

  by Green, M. D., Yang, Q., Xu, H., Dhingra, R., Farmer, H. R., Thorpe, R. J., Dupre, M. E. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  ImportanceDiscrimination in healthcare disrupts trust and can negatively influence patients. However, the impact of experiencing discrimination on long-term patterns of healthcare utilization is unknown. ObjectiveTo assess how perceived discrimination in healthcare settings is associated with longitudinal patterns of doctor visits among middle-aged and older adults in the United States. DesignProspective cohort study of US adults in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) who were followed […]

• STUDY OF FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH PSYCHOSOCIAL WELL-BEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN SENEGAL

  by KASSE, F., Tine, J. A., Faye, A., Gaye, I., Diallo, A. I., Ridde, V. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  During the COVID-19 pandemic, the global population was particularly vulnerable to psychological distress. However, the impacts of pandemics on the state of psychosocial well-being in Africa remain insufficiently studied, particularly in Senegal. Our study aimed to fill this gap by exploring these determinants. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical study representative of the population of Senegalese people aged 18 and over . 813 individuals were collected by telephone call […]

• Hypergraph Clustering for Analyzing Chronic Disease Patterns in Mild Cognitive Impairment Reversion and Progression

  by Garg, M., Liu, X., Vassilaki, M., Petersen, R. C., St. Sauver, J., Sohn, S. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundLimited research has explored the preceding sequences of medical conditions leading to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), particularly patterns that may signal progression to dementia or reversion to normal cognition. ObjectivesOur study aims to analyze common sequences of chronic conditions preceding an MCI diagnosis and examine differences between retention in MCI or progression towards dementia and reversion to normal cognition, using hypergraph clustering, a network analysis […]

• Temporal trends of key preconception indicators among women in Northern Ireland, UK: An analysis of maternity healthcare data 2011-2021

  by Cassinelli, E. H., Kent, L., Eastwood, K.-A., Schoenaker, D., McKinley, M. C., McGowan, L. on April 16, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundOptimising preconception health offers an opportunity to reverse unfavourable trends in modifiable risk factors and improve reproductive outcomes. This study aims to report the yearly prevalence of key biopsychosocial preconception indicators for over a decade, as reported at antenatal booking appointments in Northern Ireland (UK). The indicators include area-level deprivation, planned pregnancies, smoking, and body mass index (BMI) between 2011 and 2021, as well as pre- and […]

• Causal Relationship Between Gut Microbiota and Androgenic Alopecia: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

  by Liu, S., Xu, D. on April 14, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundAndrogenic alopecia (AGA) is a common condition influenced by genetic and hormonal factors, with emerging evidence linking it to gut microbiota. Dysbiosis may affect AGA through immune regulation, androgen metabolism, and systemic pathways. Using Mendelian randomization (MR), this study investigates the causal relationship between gut microbiota and AGA, aiming to uncover potential mechanisms and therapeutic targets. MethodsThe study selected six types of gut microbiota-related […]

• Agreeability testing of AMSTAR-PF, a tool for quality appraisal of systematic reviews of prognostic factor studies

  by Henry, M., O’Connell, N., Riley, R., Moons, K., Shea, B., Hooft, L., Wallwork, S., Damen, J., Skoetz, N., Appiah, R., Berryman, C., Crouch, S., Ferencz, G., Grant, A., Henry, K., Herman, A., Karran, E., Koralegedera, I., Leake, H., MacIntyre, E., Mouatt, B., Phuentsho, K., Van Der Laan, D., Welsby, E., Wiles, L., Wilkinson, E., Wilson, M., Wilson, M., Moseley, L. on April 14, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundThis paper details initial testing of the agreeability and usability of a novel quality appraisal tool for systematic reviews of prognostic factor studies: AMSTAR-PF. MethodsFourteen appraisers each assessed eight systematic reviews using AMSTAR-PF. Their ratings for each question and each article were compared, with interrater, inter-pair and intrapair agreeability calculated using Gwets agreement coefficient. Time of use and time to reach consensus were also recorded. […]

• Systematic differences were identified for symptoms of Omicron infected individuals between early and late stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in China

  by Yang, C., Zhang, Y., Yang, Y., Mi, B., Shen, M., Nian, Y., Wang, J., Cao, S., Liu, J., Abolfazli, P., Huang, H., Wei, Z., Liu, L., Wu, Q., Zhang, T., Zhang, S. on April 14, 2025 at 12:00 am

  AimWe aimed to investigate the differences in clinical features (specifically, patterns of symptoms) of the COVID-19 patients in the early and late stage of this large scale COVID-19 outbreak in Shaanxi Province in China based on data from a large scale survey. MethodsThis study used baseline data from a large survey to investigate the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Shaanxi province from Dec.2022 to Jan. 2021. A total of 44 sampling clusters (11 villages in rural areas and 33 […]

• Nowcasting cases and trends during the measles 2023/24 outbreak in England

  by Tang, M. L., McFarlane, I. S., Overton, C. E., Hani, E., Saliba, V., Hughes, G., Crook, P., Ward, T., Mellor, J. on April 14, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundFrom 2023 to 2024, England had the largest measles outbreak in over a decade. Lags from suspected cases symptom onset to the availability of test results mean laboratory-confirmed case data are inherently retrospective rather than real-time. Reporting lags vary by measles prevalence and whether testing was for diagnostic or surveillance purposes. Nowcasting models predict future backfilling of reported cases and can estimate recent trends. MethodsWe developed a generalised additive […]

• Genome-wide association study and multi-ancestry meta-analysis identify common variants associated with carotid artery intima-media thickness

  by Meena, D., Huang, J., Zare, M., Hasbani, N. R., Romuald, B. P., Mustafa, R., van der Laan, S. W., Xu, H., Terry, J. G., Bis, J. C., Jain, D., Palmer, N. D., Heard-Costa, N., Min, Y.-I., Guo, X., Yao, J., Taylor, K. D., Tan, J., Peralta, J., Pereira, A. C., Khan, A., Choudhury, A., Newman, A. B., Xiang, A. H., Hingorani, A., Freedman, B. I., ODonnell, C. J., Giambartolomei, C., Herrington, D. M., Jacobs, D. R., Klarin, D., Wang, F. F., Heiss, G., Doddapaneni, H., Hodis, H. N., Broome, J., Wilson, J. G., Brandenburg, J.-T., Blangero, J., Krieger, J. E., Smith, J. D., Viaud-Martinez, K. A., Ryan on April 14, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) is a measurement of subclinical atherosclerosis that predicts future cardiovascular events, including stroke and myocardial infarction. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified only a fraction of the genetic variants associated with cIMT. We performed the largest GWAS for cIMT involving up to 131,000 individuals. For the first time, we meta-analysed a diverse range of ancestries including populations with African, Asian (Chinese), […]

• Paratyphoid fever and the genomics of Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi A in Taiwan

  by Liao, Y.-S., Hong, Y.-P., Chen, B.-H., Wan, Y.-W., Teng, R.-H., Liang, S.-Y., Wei, H. L., Chang, J.-H., Yang, M.-H., Tsao, C.-S., Chiou, C.-S. on April 12, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundSalmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi A has emerged as a significant global health concern due to the progressive development of antimicrobial resistance and its broader geographic distribution. In Taiwan, paratyphoid fever was historically rare and predominantly associated with imported cases. Since 2022, however, a marked increase in domestically acquired infections has been observed, prompting investigations into their origin and likely route of introduction. MethodsWe analyzed […]

• The role of sleep traits in prostate, endometrial, and epithelial ovarian cancers: An observational and Mendelian randomisation study

  by Chalitsios, C. V., Pagkalidou, E., Papagiannopoulos, C. K., Markozannes, G., Bouras, E., Watts, E. L., Consortium, T. P., Richmond, R. C., Tsilidis, K. K. on April 11, 2025 at 12:00 am

  BackgroundSleep traits may influence cancer risk; however, their associations with prostate (PCa), endometrial (ECa), and epithelial ovarian (EOCa) cancer remain unclear. MethodsWe conducted an observational analysis using the UK Biobank cohort and a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to investigate the association of six sleep traits-duration, chronotype, insomnia, daytime napping, daytime sleepiness, and snoring-with PCa, ECa, and EOCa risk. Cox proportional hazards models were […]

• Gastrointestinal parasites of zoonotic importance detected in bats in the conservation area of Semuliki National Park, western Uganda

  by Ochieng, J. R., Kato, C. D., Kisakye, J. J. on April 11, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Bat guano may contain zoonotic parasites that contaminate the environment and/or serve as a potential source of infection to humans and animals. Repeated bat-human exposure could be a risk factor for zoonosis. To date, knowledge on the status of bat gastrointestinal parasites (GIPs) in Uganda is limited. We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the prevalence of bat GIP species in communities contiguous to Semuliki National Park (SNP) Bundibugyo district in western Uganda. We […]

• Development of an algorithm for the Charlson Comorbidity Index using the National Database Study in the Japan Kanto 7 Prefectures

  by Sekine, A., Nakajima, K. on April 11, 2025 at 12:00 am

  The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) contains 19 diseases, is weighted according to their potential influence on mortality, and has been widely used as a valid predictor for all-cause mortality. In this study, we aimed to develop an algorithm to define the CCI using information about diagnosed diseases and prescribed medication from the Japan National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups (NDB). The present study included 10,183,619 individuals who underwent health […]

• The influence of model structure and geographic specificity on predictive accuracy among European COVID-19 forecasts

  by Sherratt, K., Grah, R., Prasse, B., Becker, F., McClean, J., Abbott, S., Funk, S. on April 11, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Modellers take many approaches to predicting the course of infectious diseases, and achieve a wide range of accuracy in resulting forecasting performance. For example, forecasters vary in their use of different underlying model structures, and in the extent to which they adapt a model to the specific forecast target. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the impact of these choices on subsequent forecast performance. Such evaluations need a comparable sample of forecasting models, while […]

• Sociodemographic Determinants of Respiratory Failure in Patients Hospitalized with SARI in Cali, Colombia

  by Roa-Urrutia, P., Valencia-Cardona, A. F., Reina, C., Guzman-Escarria, G., Montoya-Salazar, J. I., Garces-Hurtado, A., Ortiz-Carrillo, M. E., Arango-Londono, D., Avila, G., Cruz-Barbosa, S., Concha-Eastman, A. on April 10, 2025 at 12:00 am

  ObjectivesTo analyze the association between respiratory failure and sociodemographic determinants in patients hospitalized with Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) in Cali, Colombia, in 2022. MethodA descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the 2022 respiratory failure notification file No. 348. A generalized linear model with an exponential binomial family was applied. Absolute frequencies, proportions, and odds ratios (OR) were estimated. ResultsOf 1,163 […]

• Heterogeneity in the Estimated Prevalence of Huntingtons Disease

  by Thompson, A., Quarrell, O., Strong, M. on April 10, 2025 at 12:00 am

  There is significant variation in estimates of Huntingtons Disease (HD) prevalence in different settings. Despite this heterogeneity, there continues to be much interest in quantitatively synthesizing prevalence estimates to produce global or regional pooled prevalence values. This systematic review was undertaken to describe and assess the sources of heterogeneity in estimated prevalence values, and to consequently evaluate the validity of pooled prevalence values produced. Observational […]

• Agreement between self-reported COVID-19 and dried blood spot serology

  by Sheppard, N., Carroll, M. T. C., Borg, B. M., Toh, Z. Q., Licciardi, P., Smith, C. L., Ikin, J. F., Abramson, M. J., Walker-Bone, K., Lane, T. J. on April 10, 2025 at 12:00 am

  IntroductionIdentifying likely COVID-19 cases with good accuracy is essential for epidemiological research on the pandemics health effects. Therefore, evaluating case detection methods for cost-effectiveness and reliability is important. We investigated the agreement between a validated self-report questionnaire for COVID-19 and dried blood spot serology for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. MethodsBetween June and October 2023, 311 adults completed the self-report COVID-19 questionnaire validated by the […]

• Socioeconomic inequities within and between cities in objectively measured green space qualities at small geographical scales: Evidence from Australia

  by Del Rosario, L., Astell-Burt, T., Navakatikyan, M., Olsen, J. R., Caryl, F., Lin, B., Jalaludin, B., de Leeuw, E., Mitchell, R., Feng, X. on April 10, 2025 at 12:00 am

  ObjectiveTo determine the extent of inequitable distributions in green space qualities in urban areas of Australia. MethodExisting data from the cities of Sydney (n{approx}5M), Newcastle (n{approx}500k), and Wollongong (n {approx}300k) in Australia was used to define green space qualities relating to accessibility, amenities/activities, beaches/coastline, biodiversity, incivilities, landcover and land use. Green space qualities were measured within 100m, 200m, 300m, 400m, 800m and 1600m road […]

• Are there causal associations between obsessive-compulsive disorder and cardiometabolic phenotypes? A genetic correlation and bi-directional Mendelian randomization study

  by Wootton, R. E., Crowley, J. J., Pol-Fuster, J., Holmberg, A., Ruck, C. J., Psychiatry Genomics Consortium Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Working Group,, Mataix-Cols, D., Fernandez de la Cruz, L. on April 10, 2025 at 12:00 am

  In epidemiological studies, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is robustly associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic disorders, including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and obesity. However, the mechanisms behind these associations are unclear. We conducted genetic correlation analyses to explore shared genetic etiology and bi-directional summary-level Mendelian randomization (MR) to explore potential causal effects between genetic liability to OCD and 14 cardiometabolic […]

• Dengue Outbreak 2022 A.D. in Makawanpur District, Nepal.

  by Parajuli, R. on April 10, 2025 at 12:00 am

  Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection and considered to be a global health problem. It is a serious problem in many parts of the South-East Asia along with other parts of the World. Earlier, dengue used to be highly prevalent in Terai areas and very low prevalence in the hilly areas of Nepal. But in recent days its endemic spreads into new areas in Nepals hilly regions. Makawanpur district, covering mostly upper tropical and subtropical climate zone, has always been very vulnerable to […]