Retracted: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming: Denial of Extreme Weather Events by Gianluca Alimonti et al.
In January of 2022, The European Physical Journal Plus (EPJ Plus) published a paper by Gianluca Alimonti and colleagues titled “A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming.” The article challenges the prevailing scientific consensus on climate by asserting that observational data do not show consistent or significant increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events at the global scale. This conclusion contradicts many notable, peer-reviewed studies, along with the consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), all of which document clear evidence of increases in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change.
To assess climate impacts, the authors examine trends in five natural hazard phenomena: heat waves, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, rainfall and floods, and drought. They argue that improvements in hazard detection and reporting practices have artificially inflated perceived trends, leading to mistaken observations of increasing hazard frequency. The article concludes with a normative framing of climate action, framing climate mitigation efforts as excessive or ideologically driven, implicitly undermining the legitimacy of evidence-based climate action.
Several key flaws undermine the article’s credibility:
- Cherry-picked data: The authors selectively included data that supported their conclusions while ignoring more salient, credible, recent, and well-supported evidence that would have contradicted their claims and indicated increasing trends in extreme weather events.
- Methodological issues: The methodology lacks statistical rigor, with much of the analysis either poorly executed or entirely absent. Meaningful controls for confounding variables are also omitted, as the authors selectively account for confounding variables, particularly technological improvements in detecting and mitigating weather event impacts.
- Lack of climate science expertise: None of the authors have backgrounds in climate science-related fields, with most authors having backgrounds in physics, and one author having a background in agricultural science (Luigi Mariani). This lack of expertise begins to explain the frequency misinterpretations or misrepresentations of climate datasets cited within the article.
In September 2022, the Editors-in-Chief of EPJ Plus published a note alerting readers to an investigation of the conclusions reported in the manuscript. When the authors were invited to submit an addendum to address the editor’s concerns, their response was deemed unsuitable for publication. The Editors ultimately concluded that the article’s claims were not supported by either the data presented or the broader scientific evidence. In August 2023, the journal formally retracted the article, stating the Editors “no longer having confidence in the results and conclusions reported in [the] article (Alimonti et al., 2023),” despite the authors’ disagreement with the retraction.
Although the paper was not particularly influential in mainstream media before its retraction, it was embraced by right wing outlets as an example of “mainstream climate science elites” silencing dissenting perspectives on climate change. Right-wing publications, influencers, and think tanks employ this rhetorical strategy to mobilize populist sentiment, and Alimonti and Mariani have continued this narrative by publishing a 2024 article in Natural Hazards (Alimonti & Mariani, 2024), further questioning the connection between global natural disasters and anthropogenic climate change.
This case raises broader concerns about peer review’s limitations and the role of journals in amplifying misinformation due to publishing works of proximate experts. When flawed science is later retracted, it provides rhetorical ammunition for climate denialists. Given the politicization of Alimonti et al.’s retraction, editors and reviewers must carefully assess both the authors’ expertise and the sensitivity of the topic, especially in contentious fields like climate science.
References:
Alimonti, G., Mariani, L., Prodi, F., & Ricci, R. A. (2022). Retracted article: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming. The European Physical Journal Plus, 137(1). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9
Alimonti, G., Mariani, L., Prodi, F., & Ricci, R. A. (2023). Retraction note: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming. The European Physical Journal Plus, 138(8). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-04386-3
Alimonti, G., & Mariani, L. (2024). Is the number of global natural disasters increasing? Environmental Hazards, 23(2), 186–202. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2023.2239807
